A note on timing
I wrote these in December 2025 and January 2026. I didn't publish them until now. You'll have to trust I didn't change them. See bitcoin's price if you want proof.
It's that time again when we pretend to see the future.
Why make predictions? Because it's fun. Everyone likes to peer into the future and pretend they can see what's coming. But more than that, predictions — if done well — force us to clarify our assumptions and sharpen our mental models of how the world actually works. If you think something will happen, you'd better have reasons why. What would cause it not to happen? What information would you need to be more certain?
We all feel like experts in our own life and experience. But experience alone doesn't create expertise. How you practice does.
In many areas of life, we plateau because we repeat tasks without trying to improve how we do them. Experts continuously stretch themselves just beyond their current ability. Clear goals and feedback are what separate steady improvement from stagnation.
So it makes sense to me that if you want to understand the world, and make bets on how things will play out, making predictions is a way to test and improve. But only if you go back, revisit your predictions, and look at why you were wrong.
I think the most valuable predictions sit right in the middle of obvious (the moon will appear in the night sky) and nearly impossible (aliens will land and crown me emperor of the galaxy).
Unless otherwise stated, these predictions refer to the state of things at the end of 2026.
Energy
01
Solar will grow to 12% of global electricity generation by the end of 2026.
02
Solar plus wind will grow to 20% of global electricity generation by the end of 2026.
Needs to happen
Continued 25–35% solar generation growth, and not-too-crazy overall demand growth from data centers and electrification.
Companies and stocks
03
SpaceX will be the biggest IPO of 2026.
04
Stripe will IPO in 2026.
Stripe is always “nearing IPO,” but I think it will happen this year.
05
OpenAI will not IPO in 2026.
06
Canva will not IPO in 2026.
07
The S&P 500 will cross 7,500 in 2026.
08
Bitcoin ends above $100k.
Space
09
No orbital compute in 2026.
Crusoe on Starcloud satellites aims to launch hardware with limited GPU compute capacity into orbit late in 2026, and potentially offer limited services by 2027. Companies will prep for it, but you won’t be able to rent GPUs on satellites yet. In 2026 a demo payload exists and is sending data, but it is not a service you can buy.
10
SpaceX will successfully demonstrate in-orbit propellant transfer with Starship.
11
Starship will complete at least one full launch–reentry–recovery cycle of both booster and ship.
AI
12
“Made without AI” becomes something people frequently add to posts.
Brands will do more behind-the-scenes showing of weird mediums and methods to prove it is not AI. “That’s fake” will become a default reaction as we become increasingly unimpressed by attention-grabbing content. Only when we see the ingenuity and craftsmanship behind a piece of content will we become mesmerized by it.
13
The Billboard Top 40 will have at least one song on the chart that is openly, or later revealed to be, AI.
14
The New York Times Best Sellers list will not have at least one item that is openly, or later revealed to be, AI.
Transport
Drone delivery
15
Major retailers like Walmart will have drone delivery available at 500+ locations by 2026.
Walmart currently has 100 stores as of late 2025.
Self-driving
16
Tesla will successfully launch Robotaxis in over 20 cities in 2026.
17
Tesla will start to scale volume production of Cybercabs, as measured by 3,000 cumulative Cybercabs produced by December 31, 2026.
18
FSD starts to measurably change vehicle purchasing decisions.
EVs
19
US EV market share (new vehicles sold) will cross 11%.
Demand will rebound after the tax credit pulled lots of demand forward.
20
Global EV new-vehicle market share will be 25%.
One in four cars sold will be an EV. China, of course, makes up a huge amount of this.
21
Tesla will sell more EVs than in 2025.
Tesla is still making the best overall EVs, and their FSD is second to none.
22
Rivian will sell more EVs than in 2025.
Rivian cars are great, and the R2 should sell well.
Flying cars
23
No widely available commercial air taxi service will launch in 2026.
Joby Aviation has partnered with Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) and is supposed to launch the world’s first commercial air taxi service in 2026, but I predict it will be delayed. Utah wants flying taxis by the Olympics, but nothing will come of that yet.
Robots
24
A housekeeper robot (general purpose, not a robot vacuum) will not become a massive success, as measured by selling over 1 million units.
When it does happen, it will probably be laundry, or dishwasher plus tidy, etc.
Movies
25
There will be no Oscar nomination for an AI film this year.
Fred Wilson predicted an AI-animated film gets an Oscar nomination. I disagree. People are weirdly anti-AI, and the Oscars are old school anyway. How do we define an AI film? Predominantly generated — AI animation or AI actors as the core.
26
No original movies (not based on an existing book, game, sport, etc.) will be top 15 at the box office in 2026.
Culture
Pushback on gambling
Gambling is a big problem, and only getting bigger. Gambling addiction in kids is through the roof. Apps that allow unlimited sports betting and crypto betting are being openly advertised, and tons of people are addicted. We will start seeing the first major push toward stopping some of them.
27
At least one state or nation will pass a law that attempts to limit or ban gambling for segments of the population, or attempt to push the age limit higher.
Sports
28
The NBA will announce expansion teams in Seattle and Las Vegas.
I don’t have tons of knowledge in this space, so chalk this one up as a prediction I hope happens for my hometown. Seattle has been without their basketball for too long. The NBA commissioner has continuously said the league would wait to announce expansion plans until the new media rights deal was figured out, and that’s now complete. The wild card here is that I think the NBA is waiting until the Boston Celtics sale is complete. Given that the defending NBA champion could trade at a valuation north of $6 billion, this would be a helpful data point for determining expansion fees. Once the Celtics transaction is finalized, the NBA will officially announce its new expansion teams. My guess is that Fenway Sports Group (and minority owner LeBron James) will be involved in the Las Vegas bid, while the Seattle Kraken ownership group — or someone from Amazon (Jeff Bezos / Andy Jassy) — would make sense in Seattle.
29
College football will continue on the path to becoming NFL part 2.
30
More college athletic departments will accept funding from VC or private equity, or spin out parts of the org into a separate but controlled business.
Health
31
US obesity rates drop again.
32
Worldwide obesity continues to increase.
Because the drugs are still expensive.